Why has the price of rice surged so much? The government has just released its verification results. The government acknowledged a “rice shortage,” completely reversing its previous stance.
Nearly a year after rice prices began rising, the government has finally admitted its “mistake.”
Prime Minister Ishiba:
“We had assumed production was sufficient. The timing and method of releasing stockpiled rice were inappropriate.”
About a year ago, when rice disappeared from supermarket shelves, the then-minister stated:
Former Agriculture Minister Sakamoto (September last year):
“As new rice is gradually supplied and distribution stabilizes, prices will settle at a reasonable level based on supply and demand.”
Claiming that “prices would drop once new rice arrived,” they refrained from releasing stockpiled rice. The next minister also…
Former Agriculture Minister Eto (January this year):
“There is enough rice. We have to assume it’s stuck somewhere in the distribution chain.”
They consistently insisted that rice shortages were merely a distribution issue.
However, this was entirely incorrect.
First, they misjudged rice demand. The Ministry of Agriculture predicted declining demand due to population decrease. Yet, demand significantly exceeded expectations over the past two years.
They overlooked key factors: increased inbound tourism, rice remaining relatively affordable despite widespread food price hikes, and rising demand from hometown tax donations.
They also misread production forecasts. The intense summer heat in recent years resulted in many grains turning chalky, reducing edible yields—a factor they failed to account for.
Consequently, they missed the “production shortfall,” delayed releasing stockpiled rice, and triggered price surges.
The current rice policy minister responded:
Agriculture Minister Koizumi Shinjiro:
“The Ministry bears responsibility. Our supply-demand projections for fiscal 2023-2024 were wrong. We take this seriously and will pivot toward increasing rice production while strengthening policies.”
