Domestic Challenge Emerges: Could Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Beta Enter China Next Month?

Musk stated at the Davos Forum that the full-featured version of FSD could enter China as early as February; combined with Tesla’s official confirmation earlier that starting February 14th, FSD will no longer be available for a one-time purchase, shifting to a subscription-only model. How true is this news? If the current neutered version of FSD, which can run red lights and go the wrong way, is really replaced by the full-featured version in the future, will it create a major stir like the localization did initially? First, according to a report on January 23rd, Musk clarified on January 22nd local time that the supervised version of FSD is expected to gain approval in Europe next month, with China’s approval process roughly following a similar timeline. This is not sudden; last November he predicted approval in China around February or March of this year, and now the implementation schedule has become clearer. The probability of the full-featured version entering China is not low, with two key hurdles to clear: Policy-wise, Tesla’s Shanghai data center has achieved full local data storage, meeting compliance requirements; on the chip front, according to reports, the U.S. eased restrictions in January, paving the way for Nvidia’s H200 exports to China, aiding algorithm iteration. Technically, it needs adaptation to Chinese scenarios like cutting in line and temporary traffic signals. It’s pointed out that FSD iterates 2-3 times per month, optimized with local data, with a high hope for rollout in the first quarter. This already puts pressure on domestic automakers. The subscription model offers more flexibility for car owners: the original one-time purchase was 64,000 yuan, with the monthly fee expected to be 499-699 yuan. If just trying it out, the subscription is more cost-effective; for long-term use over 8 years, the one-time purchase is cheaper. This model also presents a challenge for domestic automakers. In the current third-party smart driving market, according to statistics, Huawei’s Qiankun smart driving holds a 53.7% market share by unified technical standards, while Xpeng and BYD rely on low-cost one-time purchases or standard inclusions to capture market share. Tesla’s subscription model will disrupt the existing balance. In the short term, domestic automakers will find it difficult to adopt a pure subscription model and will likely maintain a parallel approach of both purchase and subscription while accelerating technological iteration. He Xiaopeng has already made a bet to compete with FSD, indicating that industry competition will intensify comprehensively. In summary, the entry of the full-featured version into China is highly probable. The subscription model will force industry transformation. Domestic smart driving needs breakthroughs in both localization and business models. Competition in the sector will become more intense.