Driven by policy, the market responded positively in January.
On January 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released data related to the real estate market for 2025.
The data shows that in 2025, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%; the sales value of newly built commercial housing was 8.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%. During the same period, national real estate development investment was 8.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%.
Regarding housing prices, in December 2025, prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to be predominantly declining.
However, positive signals have already emerged. In December of last year, the month-on-month declines in prices for both new and second-hand homes in first-tier cities narrowed. Among them, Shanghai’s new home prices rose 0.2% month-on-month and surged 4.8% year-on-year, becoming the only first-tier city to achieve both year-on-year and month-on-month price increases for new homes.
First-Tier City Housing Prices Show Resilience
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in December 2025, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities generally declined month-on-month, with year-on-year declines widening.
Among them, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. New home prices in second- and third-tier cities both fell by 0.4% month-on-month.
For second-hand homes, in December last year, the sales prices of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second-hand residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities both fell by 0.7% month-on-month.
As the real estate market is still in an adjustment period, housing prices in the 70 cities have been predominantly declining in recent months. However, the narrowing of price declines in the most resilient first-tier cities is seen as a positive signal.
The main reason is believed to be the noticeable year-end rally in both new and second-hand home markets in December. Among them, after previous price reductions, second-hand homeowners’ willingness to sell at further reduced prices has decreased.
In December last year, Shanghai’s new home prices rose 0.2% month-on-month and surged 4.8% year-on-year, becoming the only first-tier city to achieve both year-on-year and month-on-month price increases. The strong sales of large units over 144 square meters confirm the solid resilience of Shanghai’s upgrade demand.
It has also been pointed out that although the second-hand market continues the trend of “trading price for volume,” the wait-and-see sentiment on the demand side is gradually dissipating.
According to monitoring of 46 key cities, in 2025, the monthly average proportion of people searching for second-hand homes reached 65.4%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from 2024, with cities like Shanghai and Zhengzhou seeing particularly significant increases in the proportion of searchers. This suggests that market demand has not disappeared but has become more price-sensitive.
Signs of a Bottom Appear
In 2025, the sales area and sales value of newly built commercial housing continued to decline. This reflects that demand recovery still requires time.
It is worth noting that the decline in sales area was less than 10%, showing a significant narrowing compared to the 12.9% decline in 2024.
During the same period, real estate development investment, new construction starts, and completed area fell by 17.2%, 20.4%, and 18.1% year-on-year, respectively. This indicates that enterprises generally adopted cautious strategies during the market adjustment phase, with investment focus further shifting towards high-tier cities.
Entering 2026, the policy level has sent clear signals to “stabilize expectations.” In early January, a special commentator article titled “Improving and Stabilizing Real Estate Market Expectations” was
