Domestic gold prices have continuously reached peaks and remain out of sync with the global market. Notably, Decree 232/ND-CP and the guiding circular on gold imports took effect from October 10, but to date, no unit has been granted permission to import gold.
This has resulted in a trickle of supply in the domestic gold market, which is a significant factor impacting gold prices.
Gold Market Out of Phase, Potential Risks
Companies SJC, PNJ, and DOJI simultaneously listed SJC gold bar prices at 156.8 million VND per tael for buying and 158.8 million VND per tael for selling, down 1 million VND per tael from the peak on December 24, which reached a historic high of 159.8 million VND for selling and 157.8 million VND for buying. Although domestic gold prices have decreased, they remain at an extremely high level compared to the world. Converted at Vietcombank’s selling exchange rate, SJC gold bars are currently 17 million VND per tael higher, while ring gold is 13.6 million VND per tael higher. The buy-sell spread for 9999 ring gold has increased to 3 million VND per tael, while the spread for gold bars is 2 million VND per tael.
On the international market, gold prices paused at $4,480 per ounce, down $45 from the record high of $4,525 per ounce. Gold prices may continue to experience short-term fluctuations due to low liquidity during the Christmas holiday; the long-term trend remains driven by safe-haven demand due to global instability, potential inflation, and expectations of US interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, domestic gold prices remain significantly higher due to constrained supply, and investors are awaiting the issuance of new gold import policies (expected earliest in 2026) to reduce the price gap.
In market transactions, customer buying volume has not decreased. Many stores still do not have enough products to sell to customers. At times, SJC has stopped selling rings to the market.
A customer from Cau Giay district, Hanoi, said that SJC ring products were sold out early in the morning. “Each day, only about 100 people can buy rings, with a maximum of one chi per person.” In some places, customers had to wait five days before being able to purchase again. For gold bars, this online channel only opens for sale at specific times, leading many to believe one must be lucky to successfully place an order. If registration is successful and a notification is received, customers can then enter the store to complete the transaction.
The rapid increase in domestic gold prices is primarily attributed to the strong upward trend in global gold. However, hoarding psychology, supply-demand imbalance, and the large gap between domestic and world gold prices continue to be pushed higher. Notably, each time gold surpasses a new milestone, it triggers a strong wave of public interest, leading to increased short-term demand and heating up the market further. It is forecasted that in the short term, gold prices may continue to be unpredictably volatile.
Additional Mechanisms to Stabilize the Gold Market
Experts expect that when new guidelines on gold imports are issued (earliest in 2026), the market will become more transparent, and the gap between domestic and world gold prices will gradually narrow (from the current 15-20 million VND/tael down to 5-7 million VND/tael). According to Circular No. 34/2025/TT-NHNN guiding gold imports, December 15 was the final day of the year to establish import quotas. However, as of December 18, no unit within the association had been granted permission to produce gold bars or import gold. Eligible companies have submitted applications for licenses, but the number is not large because some businesses have not yet completed their dossiers; some units have not rectified certain issues following previous inspections. Additionally, some commercial banks meeting capital requirements
