From Shenzhen’s perspective: Tech vehicles are saturated, there are too many drivers, and delivery workers are also struggling.

In early June 2026, new warnings from the Shenzhen government about the ride-hailing market attracted significant public attention in China.

According to a report published by the Shenzhen Municipal Transportation Bureau on May 25, the ride-hailing market in the city is now “generally saturated.”

As of April 2026, Shenzhen had nearly 400,000 certified drivers but only over 142,000 vehicles eligible for operation. This imbalance has led to a sharp decline in orders per vehicle, with the average now at just 13.01 trips per day.

Driver numbers surge due to unemployment

Shenzhen was long considered one of China’s most attractive ride-hailing markets, with a population exceeding 18.2 million, a large young workforce, vibrant economic activity, and high travel demand. In the first four months of 2026 alone, the city added 2,417 ride-hailing vehicles, while the number of certified drivers increased by 12,358.

According to a report from the China New Employment Patterns Research Center published in July 2025, based on a survey of 5,417 drivers across 13 provinces and cities, 77% of drivers said they switched to ride-hailing due to unemployment, and 62.8% were the sole breadwinners in their families.

The Shenzhen Transportation Bureau previously reported that each vehicle in the city completed an average of 12.9 trips per day, with 32,202 vehicles averaging fewer than 10 trips per day, during the second half of 2025.

A ride-hailing driver from Guangdong province, surnamed Liang, who has been in the industry for eight years, shared with the economic newspaper Yicai that his income in 2025 was only about 7,000 yuan (approximately $1,000) per month, a noticeable drop from the 8,000 yuan per month in 2024.

To receive priority for trips, Mr. Liang does not reduce the time he keeps the app open, but the number of trips he receives is decreasing day by day. “If the number of drivers is not controlled, even high fares won’t help,” Mr. Liang said, attributing the main cause to the rapid increase in drivers, noting that even low-fare trips of about 1 yuan per kilometer are still being grabbed by others.

By the end of April 2026, China had 399 licensed ride-hailing platforms, approximately 5.23 million drivers with professional licenses, and 2.25 million ride-hailing vehicles with transport permits.

Multi-layered solutions needed

Mr. Zhang Chenggang, Director of the China New Employment Patterns Research Center, noted that in recent years, ride-hailing drivers have faced a decline in hourly income.

Many are forced to work longer hours to maintain their previous income levels, with the majority of drivers keeping the app open for about 10 hours per day, while a very small group exceeds 15 hours per day.

Mr. Zhang suggested that if platforms reduce commission rates, optimize order distribution algorithms, and end low-price competition, drivers could increase their income without overworking.

Under this pressure, some ride-hailing companies have reduced platform fees. The ride-hailing app T3 has committed to a maximum commission rate not exceeding 27%, while competitor Cao Cao has also lowered its fee cap from 22.7% to 22.5%. The aggregated ride-hailing app Gaode requires partner platforms to keep commission rates at no more than 27% and has reduced its own information service fee to 9%, helping drivers increase their actual revenue.

Cities such as Xi’an, Yingtan, Kaifeng, and Qingyuan have begun addressing low-price competition among platforms, particularly practices that force drivers to accept orders involuntarily or set unreasonable fee structures.

Additionally, experts argue that ride-hailing cannot continuously absorb more labor, and a city’s capacity is limited. In a commentary in the People’s Daily on June 2, observers suggested that the saturation of