(Fitch): AI Disruptions Increase Global Credit Risks Alongside War

Global credit risk expectations have risen significantly since the start of the year. The US-Iran war poses a major risk to Fitch’s baseline forecasts and assumptions, with a clear negative risk scenario of a sustained shock to global oil and gas supplies. This would have direct effects on credit ratings due to higher energy input costs, and indirect effects through lower demand, higher inflation, and tighter financing conditions. It could also have substantial negative implications for the credit ratings of issuers in specific sectors and regions.

Even if the conflict ends sustainably without new escalation and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to navigation, the risk environment has already changed. The war has raised Fitch’s baseline forecasts for global oil prices and European gas prices for 2026. Commodity prices and investments in the Gulf region may carry a long-term geopolitical risk premium, depending on the outcome of diplomatic settlements. US-European disagreements over the war could undermine transatlantic relations and NATO stability.

Other significant risks to global credit remain, beyond the scope of the war. Geopolitical tensions increased investor risk aversion in March, but other factors could worsen financing and liquidity pressures. These include AI disruptions, rising sovereign bond yields, a strong US dollar, and inflationary pressures leading to changes in interest rate expectations.

At the same time, the agency noted that AI-driven software disruption has become a widespread concern across various sectors, with impacts extending to corporate credit, private markets, and structured finance, and it expects this factor to persist for several years.

Although default rates remain limited at present, Fitch warned of increasing refinancing risks, especially with the concentration of leveraged corporate debt maturities between 2028 and 2031.

Redemption requests at non-traded US business development companies with a permanent nature rose by 36% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, driven by investor concerns over exposure to the software sector and unclear valuations.

Infographic: Indicators of Passenger Transport Apps in the Kingdom - First Quarter 2026

Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, strategically vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, serving as a crucial chokepoint for global oil shipments. Historically, it has been a contested route for trade and military power for centuries, with its importance surging in the 20th century due to the region’s vast oil reserves. Today, it remains a focal point of geopolitical tension, particularly between Iran and other nations, due to its role in global energy security.

Gulf region

The Gulf region, also known as the Persian Gulf region, encompasses countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, and has a rich history as a crossroads of ancient trade routes and pearl diving. Its modern significance surged in the 20th century with the discovery of vast oil reserves, transforming the area into a global economic powerhouse. Today, it is known for its blend of traditional Bedouin culture and ultramodern cities like Dubai and Doha.

NATO

NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was established in 1949 as a collective defense alliance among North American and European countries to counter Soviet expansion during the Cold War. Its founding principle, Article 5, states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, which was invoked for the first time after the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Today, NATO remains a key political and military alliance, adapting to new security challenges such as terrorism and cyber threats.