Who will have the last laugh? A cold war between France and Russia over Madagascar’s riches.

Although a visitor to Madagascar can see France’s influence everywhere—from architecture and cars to schools and businesses—this traditional scene is now facing fierce competition.

Since the ousting of the former president late last year in 2025, the new transitional authorities on the island have clearly begun leaning toward strengthening ties with Russia, causing significant concern in Paris.

In 2025, Madagascar experienced major political tensions and widespread protests led by the opposition against President Andry Rajoelina, especially after it was revealed that he had obtained French citizenship, sparking debate over the legitimacy of his rule and his candidacy for a new term.

The new authorities in Madagascar announced the revocation of the former president’s citizenship, a move described as a devastating blow to his political career, weeks after he was removed from office following popular protests led by the youth.

Russian presence has become tangible in the security sector, as a report revealed that senior officials in the transitional authority now rely on Russian guards from the Africa Corps forces (formerly known as Wagner).

In this context, the President of the National Assembly, Setini Ranjiana Soloniiko, who is seen as a strong ally of Moscow, spoke about the nature of the relationship with France, saying: “Our history with France has its ups and downs, but we are not governed by history.”

Soloniiko emphasized that his country aspires to a relationship built on mutual trust and the principle of “mutual benefit,” noting that the shift toward the global economic group does not mean excluding anyone, but rather an openness to all who wish to work with Madagascar.

Economic Transformation

Economically, France still leads with a trade volume double that of Russia, but Russia is setting its sights on the promising mining sector.

An economic journalist viewed these developments as a logical evolution of history, adding that it is expected for armed nations to expand their ambitions after every global geopolitical shift, describing them as “good wars” if managed well.

The journalist considered that the most important thing for Madagascar is not to close its doors, but to sign good and fair contracts that ensure the benefits from Malagasy resources and wealth return directly to the people.

An Open Arena for All

Despite the French-Russian rivalry (where trade with France amounts to $1.2 billion, double that with Russia), Madagascar remains an open arena for other international players: the United States controls 90% of textile exports, China 17.5% of basic materials, India dominates 70% of rice trade, and Japan holds 80% of the fishing sector.

Madagascar now finds itself with an opportunity to cement a policy of openness. While France tries to maintain its remaining influence, Russia seeks to exploit the island’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean to enhance its African presence, while the biggest challenge for local authorities remains putting the citizen’s interest above all else in this intense international competition.