Spot electricity prices in Guangdong have recently surged, with the real-time average price reaching 0.823 yuan per kilowatt-hour on April 13, far exceeding the 2025 average of 0.314 yuan per kilowatt-hour. The primary reason is the high volatility in imported coal and LNG prices, which has driven up the costs of thermal and gas-fired power generation.
Recently, the phenomenon of “soaring” prices in Guangdong’s spot electricity market has drawn industry attention.
Data released by the Guangdong Power Exchange Center shows that the day-ahead weighted average price on the generation side for April 16 was 0.528 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 2.28% compared to the previous period. The real-time average transaction price on the generation side for April 14 was 0.775 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 5.78%.
Since April 13, the highest day-ahead average price on the generation side in Guangdong’s spot market was 0.678 yuan/kWh, an increase of 8.57% compared to the highest average price from the previous week (April 6 to April 12). On the real-time price side, the highest real-time transaction average price this week so far was 0.823 yuan/kWh on April 13, a decrease of 15.89% compared to the highest average price from the previous week.
Judging by the real-time transaction prices, although the highest price in Guangdong’s spot market this week has decreased compared to the previous week, the overall level remains high.
The “2025 Guangdong Power Market Annual Report” shows that last year’s day-ahead weighted average spot price in the Guangdong power market was 0.317 yuan/kWh, and the real-time weighted average was 0.314 yuan/kWh. This means that, based on performance in April of this year, both the day-ahead and real-time average prices in the Guangdong power exchange market are far above the 2025 levels.
Looking at the timeline, the rise in Guangdong’s spot electricity market prices began at the end of March this year. On March 28, the real-time average transaction price in the Guangdong spot market surged to 0.841 yuan/kWh, a sharp increase of 54.80% compared to the previous period.
Why have spot market prices in Guangdong suddenly risen? Some industry insiders indicate that rising fuel costs are the core factor.
By the end of 2025, the installed capacity under unified dispatch by the Guangdong power grid was 260.8 million kilowatts. Among these, coal-fired, photovoltaic, and gas-fired installed capacity ranked in the top three, accounting for 30.3%, 23.5%, and 21.9% respectively.
It is undeniable that Guangdong’s new energy installed capacity has increased significantly in recent years. However, based on the above capacity structure shares, the combined share of coal-fired and gas-fired power is still relatively high, exceeding 52%. Consequently, thermal and gas-fired power have become the main sources of electricity supply in the Guangdong power market, and the fuel cost trends for these two power sources directly influence generation prices.
Recently, the high volatility in imported coal and LNG prices has directly pushed up the generation bids from coal-fired and gas-fired power units.
Referring to the BSPI (Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index), on April 15, the index was reported at 693 yuan per ton, with the price remaining flat compared to the previous period. Analysis suggests that the U.S.-Iran negotiations falling short of expectations, continued tight supply of overseas cargoes, high international coal prices, coupled with rising oil costs pushing up international shipping freight, have kept import landing costs high. The persistent price inversion between domestic and imported coal has made coastal end-users cautious about purchasing imported coal, shifting demand more towards the domestic market, which effectively limits the downside for domestic market coal prices.
Regarding gas prices, although the premium portion of recent international LNG spot prices has somewhat retreated, uncertainty surrounding the restoration of navigation capacity in the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East situation has also contributed to sustained increases in LNG prices. Data from the China LNG Composite Import Landing Price Index on April 15 shows that for the period of April 6 to April 12, the index was 134.59, an increase of 9.38% compared to the previous period and 0.73% year-on-year.
In past years, Guangdong’s spot electricity market has also experienced high electricity prices on multiple occasions. For example, on March 14, 2022, the day-ahead spot transaction price once reached as high as 1.2 yuan/kWh, with the day-ahead average transaction price exceeding 0.75
