The price of December futures for this variety rose by 3.3% to $3.47 per pound ($7.63 per kilogram) in New York trading on August 19. Quotes have been rising for the fifth consecutive day and have already increased by 12.62% since August 13.
The price surge occurred amid supply disruptions from Brazil. There are also persistent market concerns that next year’s coffee harvest could be affected by unfavorable weather conditions during the flowering period.
Forecasts indicate that the total harvest of Arabica and Robusta coffee in Brazil for the current season will amount to 63.9 million bags of 60 kilograms each. This is 2.1% less than in 2024.
The cost of coffee is also influenced by the 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on exports from Brazil. The United States is the main consumer of this product. About one-third of unroasted coffee in America typically comes from Brazil.
More than half of the world’s coffee production comes from Brazil (40%) and Vietnam (20%). Therefore, if the harvest suffers in these regions, it becomes noticeable for the entire market. In 2024, Vietnam experienced a drought and a typhoon. Brazilian plantations were also mainly affected by a dry period. On average, the price increase for coffee buyers in 2024 was 15–20%.
Previously, scientists determined that the Arabica tree originated in Africa 350,000–600,000 years ago. The crossbreeding that gave rise to this variety occurred long before the beginning of coffee cultivation and even before the emergence of the Homo sapiens species.
