Forecasts for the 2026 southwest monsoon in the country have raised concerns, especially for the hill states. According to the long-term assessment by the weather department, large parts of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are expected to receive below-normal rainfall this year. Some areas of Jammu and Kashmir are also expected to see below-normal rainfall, while Ladakh is expected to receive above-normal rainfall. This situation could have serious impacts on climate, agriculture, water resources, and the rural economy.

According to the weather department, total monsoon rainfall in the country this year is expected to be about 92 percent of the long-term average, indicating a below-normal category. Specifically, the probability of below-normal rainfall in Uttarakhand is estimated between 35 and 65 percent.

Reduction in snow cover

A major reason for the expected weak monsoon this year is the below-normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere during winter and spring. According to scientists, a reduction in snow cover area weakens the temperature difference between the land and the atmosphere. This difference plays a crucial role in regulating the speed and intensity of the monsoon. When this thermal difference decreases, the strength of monsoon winds may weaken, affecting the amount of rainfall.

Weakening of La Niña

Global climate indicators may also affect the monsoon this year. Currently, the weak La Niña condition is moving toward a climate-neutral state, while the possibility of El Niño during the monsoon months is being indicated. El Niño conditions are generally associated with rainfall deficits in India, as it raises Pacific Ocean temperatures and affects the direction and speed of monsoon winds.

Scientists believe that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition may turn positive in later months, which could partially compensate for the rainfall deficit. This situation is considered particularly sensitive for the hill states. There, monsoon rainfall is the main basis for water resources, agriculture, and hydropower generation. In states like Uttarakhand and Himachal, river flow, reservoir levels, and irrigation systems largely depend on the monsoon.

If rainfall remains below normal, it could also affect the output of hydropower projects. Uneven rainfall increases the risk of natural disasters like landslides. Sometimes, despite low total rainfall, sudden heavy rainfall events can cause more damage.

70% of farming depends on monsoon, risk increased

A weak monsoon naturally impacts the country’s economy. Experts believe that the overall Indian economy is not so weak as to fall into a complete crisis under current circumstances, but the agricultural sector could be directly affected. Agriculture contributes about one-quarter to the country’s gross domestic product, and this sector primarily depends on rainfall. About 70 percent of India’s agricultural land receives necessary moisture from the monsoon.

In many states, more than half of the farms are rain-fed. Small and marginal farmers are most affected by a weak monsoon. For example, in states like Madhya Pradesh, about half of wheat farming depends on rainfall, while in Maharashtra, the proportion of rain-fed farming is 80 percent. During El Niño years, pulse production often declines. This could directly impact the country’s food security and market prices.

Groundwater exploitation

Another reason for increasing pressure on water resources is the excessive exploitation of groundwater. When rainfall is low, farmers use more tubewells and pumpsets, causing groundwater levels to drop rapidly. Additionally, water availability in reservoirs decreases, affecting both irrigation and power generation. This year, some additional factors have emerged that complicate the situation further.

Untimely rainfall in March and April has damaged standing crops in many parts of the country, weakening farmers’ economic condition from the start. Due to ongoing tensions in West Asia, fertilizer supply is expected to be affected. If this situation persists, fuel prices like diesel may also rise, increasing farming costs. However, some positive signs have also emerged.

Farmers can overcome crisis with government help

Experts believe that the country’s banking system and industrial sector are in a relatively strong position, which can prevent the economy from becoming completely unstable. If crude oil prices remain controlled, the impact on GDP growth rate may be limited. Last year, the agricultural sector played a significant role in stabilizing the economy. With appropriate government support this year, farmers can overcome this challenge.

In the event of a weak monsoon, the government’s role becomes even more

Uttarakhand

Uttarakhand, often called “Devbhumi” or “Land of the Gods,” is a state in northern India known for its stunning Himalayan landscapes and sacred Hindu pilgrimage sites. Its history is deeply rooted in ancient Hindu texts, with key locations like the Char Dham (Badrinath, Kedarnath, Gangotri, and Yamunotri) drawing pilgrims for centuries, while the region was later part of the Maurya and Gupta empires before becoming a separate state in 2000. The area also holds significance for its role in the 2013 Kedarnath floods, which reshaped its modern development and disaster management efforts.

Himachal Pradesh

Himachal Pradesh is a state in northern India known for its stunning Himalayan landscapes, hill stations, and rich cultural heritage. Historically, it was home to ancient kingdoms and served as a crossroads for trade routes, while under British rule it became a popular summer retreat. Today, it is celebrated for its vibrant festivals, Tibetan Buddhist monasteries, and outdoor tourism destinations like Manali and Shimla.

Jammu and Kashmir

Jammu and Kashmir is a region in the northern part of the Indian subcontinent, known for its stunning Himalayan landscapes and rich cultural heritage. Historically, it was a princely state under British rule before acceding to India in 1947, which led to ongoing territorial disputes with Pakistan. The region is divided into three main areas: the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, the Hindu-majority Jammu region, and the Buddhist-majority Ladakh, each contributing to its diverse traditions and history.

Ladakh

Ladakh is a high-altitude region in northern India, often called “Little Tibet” for its Buddhist culture and stark, breathtaking landscapes. Historically, it was an independent kingdom with strong ties to Tibet, and it became a key stop on the ancient Silk Road trade route. Today, it is known for its dramatic mountains, monasteries like Hemis and Thiksey, and a unique blend of Tibetan and Indian influences.

Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh is a central Indian state known for its rich cultural heritage and historical significance. It was home to several ancient kingdoms, including the Maurya and Gupta empires, and features UNESCO World Heritage sites like the Khajuraho temples and Sanchi Stupa. The region also played a key role in India’s medieval and colonial history, with cities like Gwalior and Mandu showcasing a blend of Hindu, Mughal, and British influences.

Maharashtra

Maharashtra is a state in western India known for its rich history and cultural diversity. It was the heart of the Maratha Empire under leaders like Shivaji Maharaj in the 17th century, and later became a key center of British colonial administration from Bombay (now Mumbai). Today, it is famous for landmarks such as the Ajanta and Ellora caves, Bollywood, and its vibrant festivals like Ganesh Chaturthi.

Northern Hemisphere

The term “Northern Hemisphere” refers to the half of Earth that lies north of the equator, containing most of the world’s landmass and population. Its history is intertwined with human civilization, as early societies in regions like Europe, Asia, and North America developed agriculture, empires, and global trade routes here. Today, it remains a key geographical and cultural concept, influencing climate patterns, seasons, and the distribution of nations.

Pacific Ocean

The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest ocean on Earth, covering more than 60 million square miles. Its name, meaning “peaceful sea,” was given by Portuguese explorer Ferdinand Magellan in 1520 during his circumnavigation, as he encountered calm waters upon entering it. Throughout history, it has been a vital route for migration, trade, and cultural exchange among the peoples of Asia, Oceania, and the Americas.