MOMENTUM of the annual Eid al-Fitr celebration is often interpreted as having a positive impact on the socio-economic improvement of urban and rural areas. The consistent increase in household consumption to meet all needs during the Eid al-Fitr moment is a common sight witnessed by the public.

Beyond consumption, the Eid momentum also provides an opportunity for every small and medium enterprise to gain more profit than usual days due to high consumer demand. This implication has a significant impact on the periodic increase in turnover during the Eid al-Fitr moment.

Facts found on the ground also show an increase in demand for several public consumption sectors such as culinary and food (cookies, typical Eid dishes), Muslim fashion and clothing (gamis, koko, mukena, and children’s clothing).

Positive growth also applies to the sale of Eid hampers and parcels as gifts for maintaining relationships. This picture clearly provides new energy for growth accentuation, but the next question is, does this also apply to the momentum of economic growth after Eid al-Fitr?

From Consumption to Productivity
In this context, reading and re-analyzing the picture of economic growth projections after the Eid al-Fitr momentum becomes an important moment to see the pattern of strength in Indonesia’s domestic consumption, including to understand national economic resilience in a very difficult period amid an unstable geopolitical situation.

The economic crisis triggered by the outbreak of war between the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, in fact immediately caused shocks to the domestic financial market.

The rupiah exchange rate also weakened, breaking through Rp16,929 per US Dollar in early March 2026, while the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) plunged significantly by 8.82 percent in a week.

The cautious attitude of many investors towards the reality of war in the Middle East shows investors avoiding risky assets (risk-off) in developing countries and switching to safe assets like gold.

High concerns about global oil supply disruptions and inflation spikes make markets expect interest rates to remain high for longer.

This situation is exacerbated by the decline in Indonesia’s credit rating prospects, which also erodes foreign investor confidence in domestic stability. Although crisis pressures are increasing, domestic financial flows are estimated to continue growing, albeit with a fairly high slowdown.

It was emphasized that Indonesia’s fiscal condition remains safe because the debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio and budget deficit remain controlled compared to neighboring countries like Malaysia and Thailand, based on national economic growth in 2025 which reached 5.1 percent.

However, Indonesian society, especially business actors, still holds high concerns. Government simulations related to world crude oil prices soaring to 92 US Dollars per barrel still have the potential to push the state budget deficit to 3.6–3.7 percent.

Historically, the Indonesian government has experience dealing with much higher oil prices, even reaching 150 US Dollars per barrel in 2012–2013.

The government’s tactical step at that time was to mitigate budget governance so that the state budget deficit remained below 3% of GDP. Although Indonesia is quite anticipative in suppressing the crisis, today’s situation is very different.

The Free Nutritious Meals Program has created an excessive budget burden, so the maximization of financial steps must be cut amid current global geopolitical uncertainty.

Continuing the program, while budget-saving measures are implemented, does not seem to have a significant impact on fiscal growth. Pressure on the domestic financial market is predicted to remain fluctuating in the long term.

The future movement of the stock market and exchange rates is highly dependent on international developments. At this point, the alignment of collaboration between fiscal and monetary authorities becomes very crucial.

For the public, maintaining the local economy so it does not experience high inflation turmoil is a rational target of the central government. Inflation is one indicator of the success of economic development and regional head economic programs.

Regional inflation management is important as a reflection of the local economy, covering economic activities, trade distribution, public consumption, investment, and governance. Inflation is influenced by demand, supply, and expectation factors, which individually or together affect real economic conditions.

Acting Prudently
The Indonesian economy after Eid 2026 seems to remain turbulent, especially regarding second-quarter tax revenue which faces serious challenges.

Budget efficiency policies for ministries/agencies and the

Eid al-Fitr

Eid al-Fitr is the Islamic “Festival of Breaking the Fast” that marks the joyous conclusion of the holy month of Ramadan. Its history is rooted in the teachings of the Prophet Muhammad, who established this celebration as a day of gratitude, community, and charity after a month of fasting and spiritual reflection. The holiday begins with a special communal prayer and is celebrated with feasts, giving of gifts, and acts of charity to the poor.

Indonesia

Indonesia is a Southeast Asian archipelago of over 17,000 islands, historically shaped by powerful Hindu-Buddhist kingdoms like Srivijaya and Majapahit, followed by centuries of Dutch colonial rule. It is the world’s most populous Muslim-majority nation and is renowned for its immense cultural and ecological diversity, from the ancient Borobudur Temple to the unique wildlife of Komodo and Sumatra. The country declared its independence in 1945, establishing a unified republic that balances hundreds of distinct ethnic groups and languages.

United States

The United States is a federal republic founded in 1776 after declaring independence from Great Britain, with its modern government established by the Constitution in 1789. Culturally, it is a vast and diverse nation shaped by waves of immigration, indigenous heritage, and its development as a global economic and political power. Key historical sites range from colonial landmarks like Independence Hall to symbols of its ideals, such as the Statue of Liberty.

Israel

Israel is a modern nation-state established in 1948 in the historic region of the Land of Israel, an area with profound significance for Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Its territory contains numerous ancient cultural and religious sites, such as Jerusalem’s Old City, the Western Wall, the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, and the Al-Aqsa Mosque, reflecting millennia of layered history from biblical times through various empires to the present day. The modern state’s founding followed the Holocaust and a UN partition plan, and its history remains deeply intertwined with the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Iran

Iran, historically known as Persia, is a country in Western Asia with one of the world’s oldest continuous major civilizations, dating back to the Elamite kingdoms in the 4th millennium BCE. It is home to numerous UNESCO World Heritage sites, including the ancient ceremonial capital of Persepolis, which was the center of the vast Achaemenid Empire founded by Cyrus the Great in the 6th century BCE. Today, Iran’s rich cultural heritage is reflected in its architecture, poetry, and traditions, shaped by successive empires and its 1979 Islamic Revolution which established the current theocratic republic.

Middle East

The Middle East is a transcontinental region centered on Western Asia and parts of North Africa, historically known as the “Cradle of Civilization” for the emergence of ancient cultures like Mesopotamia and Egypt. It is the birthplace of major world religions, including Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, and its history has been profoundly shaped by successive empires, trade routes, and the 20th-century discovery of vast oil reserves. Today, it remains a geopolitically significant and culturally diverse area.

Malaysia

Malaysia is a Southeast Asian nation formed in 1963 through the union of former British territories, with a history shaped by ancient kingdoms, colonial trade, and diverse Malay, Chinese, and Indian influences. Culturally, it is renowned for its vibrant fusion of traditions, cuisine, and architecture, as seen in landmarks like the PETRONAS Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur and the historic port cities of Malacca and George Town, both UNESCO World Heritage Sites.

Thailand

Thailand, officially the Kingdom of Thailand, is a Southeast Asian nation with a rich history dating back to ancient kingdoms like Sukhothai and Ayutthaya, which established Theravada Buddhism and distinctive cultural traditions. It is renowned for its ornate temples, vibrant street food, and tropical beaches, and it is unique in the region for never having been colonized by a European power. Today, it is a constitutional monarchy and a major global tourist destination.