Nearly two months after the war between the US-Israel and Iran erupted, fighting has cooled down, but the risk of escalation has not diminished, as the situation shifts from the challenge of bombs and weapons to the front of economics and diplomatic will.

Since February 28, Iran has entered a phase of an indefinite ceasefire, considered a new stage.

“Stuck”

The intense military conflict of the early days has now turned into a precarious stalemate, as costs rise for both sides. While US President Donald Trump faces fierce political backlash at home and a cold attitude from traditional allies, Iran’s leadership shows signs of having consolidated control after the initial shock.

On the morning of April 23, Washington time, a senior Iranian official wrote on X that Iranian fighters are hiding in sea caves near the Strait of Hormuz to prepare to “annihilate the invaders.” Eighteen minutes later, President Trump posted on Truth Social: “I have ordered the US Navy to shoot down any ship” that engages in “mining activities in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.”

If not for Israel, it seems at least both the US and Iran are no longer keen on returning to high-intensity violence as before the April 7 ceasefire, even though threats are regularly issued from both Washington and Tehran, while their demands are not accepted by the other side.

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and Vice President at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said on April 24 that she had to “adjust her expectations” about the scenario of a quick diplomatic deal to resolve the Hormuz stalemate, given the economic and strategic costs to the US if this vital shipping lane remains closed.

Maloney said she changed her mind due to the new development of Iran’s determination to maintain control of the strait—the strongest leverage they have—as well as the strategic dilemma Trump now faces.

“He will be stuck with this, as long as the strait remains closed,” Maloney assessed. “This issue is becoming a quagmire for the US at an astonishing speed.”

Will force not bring a solution?

“If they don’t want to reach a deal, I will end it militarily,” Trump told reporters at the White House on April 23. But the New York Times cited experts saying that Trump’s options now are not optimistic.

The US blockade of Iranian transport ships through the area and Iran’s reciprocal blockade of nearly all other ships continues to choke the global energy and goods market, causing more severe inflation risks in the US ahead of the midterm elections, which are predicted to be difficult for the Republican Party.

Iran seems determined to demand major concessions from Trump, such as lifting sanctions and compromising on their nuclear program, before accepting any diplomatic solution.

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    Tehran

    Tehran, the capital of Iran, is a sprawling metropolis with a history dating back over 200 years, having been established as the capital in the late 18th century under the Qajar dynasty. It served as the seat of the Pahlavi monarchy until the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which transformed the country’s political and cultural landscape. Today, Tehran is a vibrant hub of museums, palaces like the Golestan Palace, and modern landmarks such as the Milad Tower, reflecting its blend of ancient heritage and contemporary life.

    Strait of Hormuz

    The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, strategically vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the open ocean. Historically, it has been a crucial trade route for centuries, but its modern significance stems from the fact that about 20% of the world’s petroleum passes through it, making it a focal point for geopolitical tensions and naval presence, particularly between Iran and other global powers.

    United States

    The United States is a vast country in North America, founded in 1776 through the Declaration of Independence from British rule. Its history includes westward expansion, the Civil War over slavery and states’ rights, and its rise as a global superpower in the 20th century. Culturally, it is known for its diversity, influenced by waves of immigration, and iconic sites like the Statue of Liberty, the Grand Canyon, and Washington, D.C.

    Iran

    Iran, historically known as Persia, is a country in West Asia with a rich cultural heritage dating back thousands of years, including the ancient Achaemenid Empire founded by Cyrus the Great. Its cultural sites, such as Persepolis and the Naqsh-e Jahan Square in Isfahan, reflect a blend of pre-Islamic and Islamic influences. Today, Iran is known for its contributions to art, literature, and architecture, as well as its complex modern history marked by revolution and geopolitical significance.

    Israel

    Israel, located in the Middle East, is a country with a rich and complex history as the ancestral homeland of the Jewish people, dating back thousands of years to biblical times. It was established as a modern state in 1948, following the end of the British Mandate for Palestine and the aftermath of the Holocaust. Today, Israel is a vibrant democracy and a cultural crossroads, home to significant religious sites for Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, such as Jerusalem’s Western Wall and the Dome of the Rock.

    Brookings Institution

    The Brookings Institution is a prominent American nonprofit public policy think tank based in Washington, D.C., founded in 1916 by philanthropist Robert S. Brookings. Originally established as the Institute for Government Research, it was the first private organization dedicated to analyzing national public policy issues. Over the decades, Brookings has become one of the most influential and respected research institutions, shaping policy debates on topics ranging from economics and governance to foreign policy and social issues.

    White House

    The White House is the official residence and workplace of the President of the United States, located in Washington, D.C. Construction began in 1792 after a design competition won by architect James Hoban, and President John Adams became its first resident in 1800. It was burned by British forces during the War of 1812, but was rebuilt and has since undergone numerous renovations, serving as a symbol of the American presidency and democracy.

    New York Times

    The New York Times is a major American newspaper founded in 1851, known for its comprehensive news coverage and influential journalism. It has won numerous Pulitzer Prizes and played a key role in major historical events, such as publishing the Pentagon Papers in 1971. Today, it remains a leading global news source, with a strong digital presence and a reputation for investigative reporting.