International organizations have revised downward their forecasts for global trade volume in 2025 due to rising trade tensions and policy instability.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global merchandise trade rose sharply in early 2025 as importers stockpiled goods ahead of expected higher tariffs. However, weak export orders suggest this growth may not last.

In June 2025, the merchandise trade index rose to 103.5 (up from 102.8 in March 2025), but the new export orders component remained at just 97.9, signaling weaker trade growth later in the year as businesses reduce imports and clear accumulated inventories.

Transport-related components, including air freight (104.3) and container shipping (107.1), reflect increased goods movement.

The automotive products index (105.3) also exceeded trends due to recovering production and sales. The electronics components index (102) rebounded after declines in 2023 and 2024.

Finally, the raw materials index (100.8) showed modest growth, slightly above baseline levels.

The OECD forecasts global trade growth of 2.8% in 2025, 0.8 percentage points lower than its December 2024 projection, with further slowing to 2.2% in 2026.

The World Bank (WB) projects global trade in goods and services to grow just 1.8% in 2025, down 1.3 percentage points from its January 2025 forecast. This is significantly below 2024’s 3.4% and the pre-pandemic 4.6%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global trade volume for goods and services to rise only 1.7% in 2025, 1.5 percentage points lower than its January 2025 forecast and less than half of 2024’s 3.8%.

International organizations cite rising trade barriers, particularly tariffs, and widespread policy uncertainty as key reasons for the deteriorating trade outlook.

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The IMF notes that new U.S. tariffs and countermeasures have pushed global tariff levels to their highest in a century.

Escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty negatively impact investment, business confidence, and consumer sentiment.

The United Nations (UN) warns that global trade conflicts will pressure investments, weaken global demand, raise business costs, and increase policy instability.

Many companies are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, delaying or cutting investment expenditures.

While merchandise trade faces challenges, some sectors show relative resilience. The WB notes stable global services trade growth as tourism nears pre-pandemic levels.

However, tourism-driven service export momentum has weakened. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) highlights regional technology exporters as bright spots, benefiting from strong global electronics demand. The semiconductor market is projected to grow 11.2% in 2025, driven by AI-related logic and memory products.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts the digital economy to reach $16.5

World Trade Organization (WTO)

The **World Trade Organization (WTO)**, established in 1995, is an international body that regulates global trade rules between nations, succeeding the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) from 1948. Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, it aims to ensure smooth, predictable, and fair trade by resolving disputes and negotiating agreements among its 164 member countries. The WTO plays a key role in promoting economic cooperation but has faced criticism over issues like inequality and sovereignty concerns.

OECD

The **OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)** is an international organization founded in 1961 to promote economic growth, trade, and development among its member countries. It evolved from the post-World War II **OEEC (Organisation for European Economic Co-operation)**, which administered the Marshall Plan. Today, the OECD provides policy analysis, data, and recommendations on global economic, social, and environmental challenges.

World Bank (WB)

The **World Bank (WB)** is an international financial institution established in 1944 to help rebuild economies after World War II. Today, it provides loans, grants, and technical assistance to developing countries to reduce poverty and support sustainable development. Comprising five institutions, the WB focuses on areas like infrastructure, education, and climate resilience.

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

The **International Monetary Fund (IMF)**, established in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference, is an international organization aimed at fostering global monetary cooperation, financial stability, and sustainable economic growth. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., it provides policy advice, financial assistance, and technical support to member countries facing economic challenges. The IMF plays a key role in crisis management, such as during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, by offering loans and promoting economic reforms.

United Nations (UN)

The **United Nations (UN)**, established in 1945 after World War II, is an international organization aimed at promoting peace, security, and cooperation among nations. Headquartered in New York City, it replaced the League of Nations and now includes 193 member states, addressing global issues like human rights, climate change, and conflict resolution. Key bodies include the General Assembly, Security Council, and specialized agencies like UNICEF and WHO.

Asian Development Bank (ADB)

The **Asian Development Bank (ADB)**, established in 1966, is a regional development bank headquartered in Manila, Philippines. Its mission is to promote economic growth and cooperation in Asia and the Pacific by providing loans, technical assistance, and grants for infrastructure, education, and environmental projects. The ADB now has 68 member countries and plays a key role in reducing poverty and supporting sustainable development in the region.

UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

The **UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)** is a permanent intergovernmental body established in 1964 to promote equitable trade, investment, and development opportunities for developing countries. It provides research, policy advice, and consensus-building to help integrate these nations into the global economy. UNCTAD plays a key role in addressing issues like debt, market access, and sustainable development.