Now, more than three months since the start of the attack launched by both the United States and Israel on Iran, including the ceasefire that began on April 8, it may be appropriate to take stock of what the parties have gained and lost.
To do this, it will be necessary to go back to what the United States and Israel stated as reasons for carrying out this attack. At the time, it was said that Iran was on the verge of possessing a nuclear weapon that could threaten Israel and even the United States itself, and that dealing with this situation required, along with destroying nuclear capabilities, eliminating the top political, military, and technical leaders, foremost among them the Supreme Leader. This, it was said, would lead to a change in the system that has been in place since the Islamic Revolution and the overthrow of the Shah.
It was also said at the time that, in parallel, it was necessary to eliminate the remaining military capabilities, which include, in addition to the air force and navy, missile and drone capabilities, along with related launch platforms and military installations in general.
After the emergence of a new element—which apparently was not anticipated, even though it was easy, indeed logical, to predict—namely Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes, along with many other materials important for various economic activities, foremost among them agricultural fertilizers, opening the strait to international navigation became one of the goals the United States in particular is working to achieve.
After this broad overview of the goals the attacking parties announced they wanted to achieve, let us look at the situation as it now stands.
Regarding regime change in Iran, which of course presupposes replacing it with a regime friendly to the United States and Israel, although a large number of top leaders, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, were eliminated in the early hours of the attack, followed in quick succession by the killing of many other first-tier leaders on various military, technical, and security fronts, this did not lead to any tangible disruption in the structure controlling the state. It has become clear that there are mostly affiliated cadres, largely from the more hardline Revolutionary Guard, who have now assumed leadership positions.
Add to that the failure of what the Israeli Prime Minister told the American President—when he convinced him to carry out this operation—that there would be street protests with the help of Mossad agents calling for the overthrow of the system.
Regarding the military dimension, statements from the American side indicate that there has been a comprehensive destruction of the Iranian air force and navy, along with the destruction of most of the stockpile of ballistic missiles, including launch platforms, and drones, and significant damage to infrastructure generally throughout Iran.
In this regard, it must be taken into account—concerning the Iranian air force and navy—that they were not expected to have a tangible impact in any military confrontation with an enemy possessing the latest capabilities in quantity and quality in both the air and naval domains.
For the Iranian air force, as a result of the boycott imposed since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, it consisted mainly of American fighter jets that Iran acquired during the Shah’s era, which are, of course, completely outdated compared to what is now available to the parties to the conflict.
Regarding the Iranian navy, which the United States announced it had destroyed, it too consisted mainly of a number of American frigates from the pre-Islamic Revolution era, along with some small wholly produced ships. These, of course, as is the case with the Iranian air force, would have no effectiveness against the overwhelming American naval power, which included the largest aircraft carrier in the US Navy.
Recognizing that its conventional military capabilities in the air and naval domains would have no tangible impact in a confrontation with its potential enemies, foremost among them Israel and the United States, Iran adopted an alternative approach under the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard. This involved replacing aircraft and technologically advanced air attack systems with ballistic missiles and drones, which can be produced locally and at relatively low cost.
In the naval domain, reliance shifted to fast attack boats capable of delivering explosives to large naval vessels, along with its capabilities for deploying naval mines. Thousands of these boats have been produced in what has become known as the “Mosquito fleet,” which is also commanded by the Revolutionary Guard.
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