On August 6th, the inauguration of Poland’s newly elected president, Karol Nawrocki, took place. In the presidential elections held in June, supported by the conservative party “Law and Justice” (PiS), Nawrocki defeated the candidate from the ruling forces, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

The balance of political power in Poland remains unchanged: former President Andrzej Duda also belonged to PiS, while executive power remains in the hands of the pro-European government of the liberal coalition led by Donald Tusk. However, relations between Nawrocki and Tusk began to take on a contentious and unpredictable character even before the inauguration.

  • Nawrocki publicly called Tusk “the worst prime minister since 1989,” and after taking office, he stated that he did not plan to meet with him unless absolutely necessary. In response to the president’s harsh rhetoric, Tusk noted that he would be forced to cooperate with him due to the “rules of the game,” but warned of “difficult cooperation” and prepared an emergency plan for his team.
  • Nawrocki has the full range of presidential powers, including the right to veto legislative initiatives, the ability to refer laws to the Constitutional Court, and the authority to shape foreign policy on defense and national security. According to foreign analysts, for any major reform, the prime minister will have to either negotiate with the opposition or find legal workarounds.
  • A presidential veto on key government issues, such as abortion rights and measures to combat the budget deficit, can only be overridden by a two-thirds majority in the Sejm—something the ruling coalition does not have. Nawrocki himself also appears intent on becoming a problem for the government by proposing populist and hard-to-implement measures, such as tax cuts.
  • If the conflict between branches of government escalates, early elections or a change of prime minister within the coalition cannot be ruled out. Tusk himself has already commented on the possibility of his resignation, not excluding a change in cabinet leadership for the sake of political stability.