(Reference photo)

The departure of Komeito from the coalition government is likely to have a significant impact on the next House of Representatives election. In the last general election in October, among the nine LDP candidates who won single-seat constituencies in the prefecture, five secured victory by narrow margins of within 20,000 votes. If Komeito’s estimated 20,000 votes per constituency are lost, the number of victories in single-seat districts could drop to just four seats. This situation is comparable to the “nightmare” of the 2009 House of Representatives election when the party suffered a major defeat and lost power, making it difficult to casually discuss “cutting ties” with Komeito.

In the previous House of Representatives election, Komeito received approximately 412,320 proportional representation votes in the prefecture. Simply dividing this among 20 constituencies gives about 20,000 votes per district. One LDP executive acknowledged the effectiveness of election cooperation in the constituencies, stating, “There were many districts where candidates narrowly won thanks to Komeito votes.” They also noted, “Candidates and their teams in closely contested districts need to be fully prepared. The situation will become difficult across the board.”

For example, in District 17, former Digital Minister Karen Makishima won by a margin of 4,174 votes, but without Komeito votes, she would likely fall behind the Constitutional Democratic Party candidate who came in second. Besides Makishima, four other candidates won by margins of less than 20,000 votes: National Public Safety Commission Chairman Manabu Sakai in District 5 (13,096 vote margin), former Reconstruction Minister Kazunori Tanaka in District 10 (6,259 vote margin), Mr. Jiro Akama in District 14 (7,190 vote margin), and Mr. Tsuyoshi Kusama in District 19 (13,458 vote margin). Like Makishima, these candidates are at high risk of being overtaken by opposition parties. One lawmaker expressed concern, saying, “While there might be some return of conservative votes, it’s unlikely to make up for the loss of Komeito votes.”

Prefectural Federation Chairman Shinjiro Koizumi Regarding Komeito

[Table below] Votes for LDP Candidates and Komeito in the Previous House of Representatives Election in the Prefecture

House of Representatives

The House of Representatives is the lower chamber of the United States Congress, established by the Constitution in 1789. It was designed to represent the people directly, with representation based on state population, and is responsible for initiating all revenue bills and impeaching federal officials.

Komeito

Komeito is a Japanese political party founded in 1964, originally established as the political wing of the Soka Gakkai, a Buddhist religious movement. It has been a significant force in Japanese politics, often serving as a coalition partner to the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The party’s platform emphasizes peace, welfare policies, and its connection to its grassroots Buddhist support base.

LDP

“LDP” most commonly refers to the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, which is a major political party rather than a physical place or cultural site. Founded in 1955, it has been the dominant ruling party in Japan for most of the post-war era, shaping the country’s modern political and economic landscape. Its history is defined by its conservative policies and its role in Japan’s rapid economic growth.

Constitutional Democratic Party

The Constitutional Democratic Party was a liberal political party in Russia founded in 1905 during the rise of opposition to Tsar Nicholas II. It was a major force in the short-lived Russian Duma, advocating for a constitutional monarchy and democratic reforms. The party was banned after the Bolsheviks seized power in the 1917 October Revolution.

District 17

District 17 is a modern administrative district of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, primarily developed in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Historically, the area was largely rural and saw significant urbanization and infrastructure growth as the city expanded. Today, it is a residential and commercial area known for its markets, schools, and ongoing development.

District 5

District 5, also known as the Chinatown of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, is a vibrant and historic district that has been the center of the city’s Chinese community since the late 17th century. It is renowned for its bustling markets, traditional temples, and authentic cuisine, offering a rich cultural experience that reflects its deep-rooted heritage.

District 10

District 10 is one of the 24 districts that make up Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Historically, it was part of the swampy outskirts of the city, but it developed significantly in the late 19th and early 20th centuries under French colonial rule. Today, it is a densely populated urban district known for its busy markets, hospitals, and a mix of residential and commercial areas.

District 14

“District 14” is not a recognized official administrative district in any major global city. The name is most famously used as the fictional, impoverished, and heavily controlled district in *The Hunger Games* series, which serves as the center of the Panem rebellion. In the real world, the number 14 is sometimes used in fictional settings to represent a hidden or restricted area.