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Bengal Election 2026: Voting is underway for the West Bengal Legislative Assembly election. Mamata Banerjee has been the Chief Minister of Bengal for 15 years. Last time, the BJP put in all its effort; it didn’t win power, but its support base certainly increased. Now the question is whether the BJP can benefit this time from the anti-incumbency wave against the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC). A major point here is whether the BJP will succeed in converting the discontent against the Mamata government into votes. This won’t happen on its own. There are some factors that show where the BJP stands and what the TMC’s own strengths are.
Experts believe that the anti-incumbency wave in Bengal could be real, but it is not visible across the entire state. It is in a scattered state. There is anger among voters over unemployment and the economic crisis, allegations of corruption, and concerns related to governance, administration, and law and order. However, this anger is not uniform across all areas. This discontent varies according to the district, caste group, and local issues.
Where is the TMC gaining an advantage?
Yes, it is important to understand this. Mamata Banerjee’s party is benefiting from its welfare schemes. These are the same ‘beneficiary voters’ who appear loyal to the TMC. Welfare schemes popular among women and rural voters could blunt the impact of the anti-incumbency wave. Perhaps this is also a major reason why an anti-Mamata wave doesn’t form across the entire state.
Like last time, the BJP has fielded its ministers, chief ministers, and its biggest campaigner, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in election campaigning. The BJP is trying to capitalize on the discontent against the Mamata government through the Prime Minister’s appeal, issues of infiltration and governance, aggressive campaigning, and booth-level strategy.
Despite all this, the BJP also faces some challenges. In Bengal, the TMC has consistently portrayed the saffron party as an ‘outside party’. However, this allegation has diminished over the past five years. Currently, the BJP lacks a strong local face to project as a Chief Ministerial candidate against Mamata. It is another matter that Union Home Minister Amit Shah is saying in rallies that a Bengali-speaking person will be the state’s Chief Minister. Compared to the TMC, the BJP’s grassroots organization has still not become as strong.
Impact of the Voter List Controversy
The TMC expects that the millions of people who had to face an identity crisis, whose names were cut and then re-added, will show anger against the BJP. The SIR issue has significantly increased emotional and political tension. This could affect voter mood, but its impact may not necessarily be predictable in advance. Its effect could influence either camp.
Local experts say that no clear wave is visible in this election because voters are largely silent; only the noise of the leaders is audible. This is set to be a fiercely contested election. The results coming on May 4 will depend on how voters view some key issues/themes.
1. Anti-incumbency wave
2. Benefits of welfare schemes – will the beneficiary voter bloc break?
3. Identity politics
4. Strength of local candidates
Looking at it this way, even after putting in full effort, the anti-incumbency wave alone is not enough to secure victory against a ‘fighter leader’ like Mamata Banerjee in Bengal. The election result will depend on whether the BJP can combine these things in its favor:
1. Uniting the scattered discontent in its favor.
2. The impact of a strong grassroots organization.
3. How much it can breach the voter loyalty caused by the TMC’s welfare schemes.
