Fertility rate declines, but central committee formed to examine ‘abnormalities in population distribution’

The central government has formed a committee to investigate ‘abnormal’ changes in population composition.
On Tuesday, while announcing the formation of this committee, the Union Home Minister said, “Due to infiltration and abnormal changes in population composition, concerns are arising for the present and future of the country. On Independence Day, the Prime Minister had also announced the formation of a high-level committee to examine changes in population composition for this issue.”
The Home Minister did not explain the basis for this claim of ‘abnormal’ changes in population composition, as no census has been conducted during this government’s tenure. The Modi government postponed the 2021 census citing COVID-19. Yet, elections were held in multiple states during that time. However, the Sample Registration System, operated by the Registrar General under the Home Ministry, has reported that the country’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 percent.
The Home Minister stated that this committee, under retired Justice Prakash Prabhakar Naolekar, will include the Census Commissioner. Retired IAS officers Durgashankar Mishra, Balaji Srivastava, and Dr. Shamika Ravi will be part of the high-level committee. The Joint Secretary of the Foreigners Division of the Union Home Ministry will serve as the committee’s member secretary.
Although formed under the guise of population composition, the committee’s real goal is to present various data regarding infiltration. Notably, the BJP has politically highlighted this issue in its election campaigns in West Bengal and Assam.
After coming to power in West Bengal, the BJP has ordered the establishment of detention centers or holding centers in all districts. In districts like Murshidabad and Malda, several individuals have been detained in holding centers. However, they are not being produced before the legal system under the Foreigners Act as per law.
By forming the high-level committee, the Home Minister said it will examine where and how population composition has changed due to illegal infiltration and abnormal reasons.
He stated that it will also investigate whether population growth in social and religious segments is abnormal. Along with analyzing the causes, the committee will also recommend solutions.
Following the Prime Minister’s speech on the formation of the high-level committee on population composition, the CPI(M) had raised questions. It was said that the purpose of this step is actually another strategy to create hatred against the religious minority Muslims.
Notably, a report on fertility rates stated that in demographic science, the ‘replacement level’ is considered 2.1. That is, when an average of slightly more than two children are born per couple, one generation is numerically replaced by the next. In India’s case, that rate has now fallen below this level. A more significant matter is that most states in the country have already fallen below this threshold.
The exceptions are only six states in northern and central India. These states are: Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh.
Although the Muslim population share is higher in Kerala and West Bengal than in these six states, the fertility rate is lower. And in these six states of the Hindi belt, the BJP has been in power at various times. Hindutva politics has also been primarily cultivated in these states.
Among these six states, Bihar still has the highest fertility rate, between about 2.9 and 3.2. In Uttar Pradesh, it is between 2.6 and 2.9, in Madhya Pradesh about 2.7, in Rajasthan between 2.5 and 2.7, in Jharkhand 2.5, and in Chhattisgarh 2.4.