Pre-rain activity to begin in Gujarat from May 25.
IMD forecasts rainfall at 94% of long-term average; WMO warns of ‘Super El Niño’ which may weaken monsoon in India
Citizens rush to water parks for relief from heat, as temperatures hit mid-forties
With Gujarat reeling under intense summer heat, attention is now shifting from soaring temperatures to the approaching monsoon. Weather agencies and experts have offered mixed forecasts for the 2026 rainy season, though most indicate that pre-monsoon activity will begin across parts of the state between May 25 and June 5.
The southwest monsoon is expected to hit Kerala around June 1 and may reach Gujarat between June 8 and 15 if weather conditions remain favorable. South Gujarat districts such as Valsad and Navsari are likely to receive the first showers before the system gradually advances towards Central Gujarat, including Ahmedabad, by June 25.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Gujarat is likely to receive near-normal rainfall this year.
Traditional knowledge system predicts good monsoons
The weather is expected to begin changing from the last week of May, with dust storms and gusty winds likely during the pre-monsoon phase. According to farmers following traditional astrological patterns, the period between May 25 and June 7 (the Rohini Nakshatra) may witness beginning of the pre-monsoon activity. Mild showers during this period mostly bears good rainfall later in the season.
Super El Nino likely in 2026: WMO
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a very high probability of El Niño conditions developing from May–July 2026, with a significant likelihood of it strengthening and persisting through the rest of the year. El Nino years usually result in weak monsoons in India. The report warns of a potential “Super El Niño” in 2026, which could lead to record-breaking global temperatures in 2027. Private forecaster Skymet Weather has also cautioned that South Asia could witness below-normal rainfall this year. The IMD, in its long-range outlook, has projected rainfall at around 94% of the long-period average.
Ahmedabad saw 48°C in 2016
Meteorologists have also warned of a sharp rise in temperatures before the arrival of the monsoon. The impact of hot winds and dust-laden systems originating from the Middle East could push temperatures to nearly 46°C by mid-May in several parts of Gujarat.
Data from the past 15 years show that Ahmedabad recorded its highest May temperature of 48°C on May 20, 2016. Rajkot’s all-time May record stands at 47.9°C recorded in 1977, while Vadodara touched 46.2°C in 2004. Surat’s highest recorded May temperature remains 45.6°C, logged in 1956.
Kerala
Kerala, a state on India’s tropical Malabar Coast, is renowned for its unique culture, backwaters, and Ayurvedic traditions. Its history as a major spice trading hub dates back over 3,000 years, attracting ancient Romans, Arabs, and Chinese merchants, and later European colonial powers. This rich heritage has shaped Kerala’s diverse society, noted for its high literacy rate and distinctive art forms like Kathakali.
Gujarat, located in western India, is a state rich in history and culture, known as the birthplace of Mahatma Gandhi. Its ancient roots include the Indus Valley Civilization site of Lothal, and it was a major center for trade under the Solanki dynasty and later the Mughal Empire. Today, Gujarat is celebrated for its vibrant festivals, distinctive cuisine, and architectural landmarks like the Somnath Temple and the Rann of Kutch.
Kerala
Kerala, located on the southwestern coast of India, is renowned for its lush landscapes, backwaters, and rich cultural heritage. Historically, it was a major center for the spice trade, attracting traders from ancient Rome, China, and later European colonial powers like the Portuguese, Dutch, and British. Its unique history, including the influence of the Chera dynasty and the development of a highly literate society, has shaped its distinct traditions in art, cuisine, and social reforms.
Valsad
Valsad is a coastal city in the Indian state of Gujarat, historically known as Bulsar. It was a significant trading port under various rulers, including the Marathas and the British, and is renowned for its lush mango orchards and the nearby Tithal Beach. Today, Valsad serves as an important commercial and cultural hub, blending its colonial-era architecture with modern development.
Navsari
Navsari is a historic city in the Indian state of Gujarat, known for its deep ties to the Parsi community, who migrated there centuries ago. It served as a major center for trade and commerce under various rulers, including the Mughals and the British. Today, Navsari is celebrated for its cultural heritage, including ancient fire temples and traditional Parsi cuisine.
Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad, located in western India, is a historic city founded in 1411 by Sultan Ahmed Shah on the banks of the Sabarmati River. It served as the capital of the Gujarat Sultanate and later became a key center of India’s independence movement, notably hosting Mahatma Gandhi’s Sabarmati Ashram. Today, it is a UNESCO World Heritage City, renowned for its blend of Hindu, Islamic, and Jain architecture, including the iconic Jama Masjid and intricate stepwells.
Rajkot
Rajkot is a historic city in the Indian state of Gujarat, once the capital of the former princely state of Saurashtra. It is famously known as the childhood home of Mahatma Gandhi, who spent several years there and received his early education. Today, the city is a bustling industrial and cultural hub, featuring landmarks like the Kaba Gandhi No Delo and the Watson Museum, which reflect its rich heritage.
Vadodara
Vadodara, also known as Baroda, is a major city in the Indian state of Gujarat, historically the capital of the princely state of Baroda under the Gaekwad dynasty. The city is renowned for its rich cultural heritage, including landmarks like the Laxmi Vilas Palace, which is four times the size of Buckingham Palace. Today, Vadodara is a vibrant cultural and industrial hub, famous for its museums, parks, and as the home of the Maharaja Sayajirao University.
Surat
Surat is a major port city in the Indian state of Gujarat, with a rich history dating back to the medieval period. It flourished as a prominent trading hub during the 16th and 17th centuries, known for its textile and diamond industries, and was a key center for maritime commerce under the Mughal Empire and later European powers. Today, it remains a global leader in diamond cutting and polishing, blending its historic legacy with modern economic significance.
