Trump’s “Ultimatum” Deadline Arrives! Will Oil Prices Plunge or Skyrocket?

After a series of declines, oil prices have stabilized as traders await the next steps by U.S. President Trump to halt the Russia-Ukraine conflict, following his imposition of tariff penalties on India for purchasing Russian oil.

Brent crude prices steadied near $66 per barrel after six consecutive days of losses—the longest losing streak since May. Trump had set a Friday deadline for Moscow to agree to a ceasefire, stating his willingness to meet with Putin even if the Russian leader has not yet agreed to sit down with Ukrainian President Zelensky.

Earlier this week, Trump doubled tariffs on all Indian imports to 50% as punishment for the country’s purchase of Russian crude, prompting state-owned Indian refiners to reduce purchases and seek alternative sources.

After three months of gains, oil prices fell sharply in August. Investors are preparing for a potential supply surplus later this year as OPEC+ proceeds with easing production restrictions.

Meanwhile, signs of slowing growth in the world’s largest economy, partly due to the broader impact of Trump’s trade tariffs on economic activity, have also weighed on crude futures, posing risks to energy demand.

“Geopolitics remains the primary driver,” said an analyst. “The market does not expect a significant tightening in oil supply and demand, as higher prices would run counter to U.S. interests. As a result, oil has struggled to gain upward momentum recently.”

In recent years, whether due to conflicts, geopolitical risks, or administrative hurdles like sanctions and tariffs, oil traders, producers, and consumers have proven adept at navigating supply challenges.

Brent crude’s prompt spread—the difference between its two nearest contracts—indicates that near-term conditions have eased. This closely watched indicator has narrowed to a backwardation of 58 cents per barrel, compared with over $1 a month ago.

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May

“May” is not a specific place or cultural site, so it’s unclear what you are referring to. If you meant a location like the **Isle of May** in Scotland, it is a small island in the Firth of Forth known for its wildlife sanctuary and historic lighthouse. The island has a rich history, including a 12th-century monastery and its role in seabird conservation.

Alternatively, if you meant something else (e.g., a cultural event or a different location), please provide more details so I can give an accurate summary!

world’s largest economy

The United States is currently the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of over $25 trillion as of 2023. Its economic dominance began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, driven by industrialization, technological innovation, and global trade. Key factors in its growth include a strong financial system, entrepreneurial culture, and significant influence in global markets.

Brent crude’s prompt spread

The Brent crude prompt spread refers to the price difference between near-term (prompt) and later-dated Brent crude oil futures contracts, reflecting short-term supply and demand dynamics. Historically, a widening spread (contango) suggests oversupply or storage buildup, while a narrowing spread (backwardation) indicates tight supply. Brent crude, sourced from the North Sea, serves as a global oil benchmark, with its pricing dynamics influenced by geopolitical events, production changes, and market speculation.