In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP did not secure an absolute majority. Nevertheless, their mentor organization, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), is desperate to use the government fully to establish its overarching dominance. For the first time in the post-independence era, the Prime Minister’s Independence Day speech extensively praised the RSS—an organization accused of Gandhi’s assassination and politics of communal division, and banned at that time—forcing the nation to listen. In reality, their tradition of guru dakshina (offering to the guru) is in practice. The current Prime Minister Modi, once a dedicated RSS pracharak (propagator), paid his centenary tribute to the guru in this very manner, by granting official recognition to the Sangh Parivar! Simultaneously, he announced the ‘Population Mission’ to implement the Sangh Parivar’s plans. This mission is essentially a plan to create divisions among people based on religion and caste, under the guise of identifying so-called ‘ghuspethiya’ or illegal infiltrators to expel them from the country—a government effort to unleash persecution on helpless refugees and minority communities. It is a strategy to obscure urgent issues like food, clothing, shelter, education, healthcare, and employment, which are vital to the majority of the country’s population.
However, this ‘Population Mission’ could have been designed to improve the quality of life for the majority of the country’s helpless population. Because, in India, a suitable situation has now emerged to leverage the demographic dividend, which could facilitate the country’s economic progress. The main reason for this demographic dividend is that the proportion of working-age individuals (15-64 years) is significantly higher than the dependent population (children and the elderly). India’s average age is now around 28 years, which is much lower than the average age of developing countries. Experts believe this situation arose due to declines in both birth and death rates. It is estimated that India will benefit from this advantage until around 2041.
According to researchers, until 2030, India’s working-age population will increase by approximately 1.2 crore annually. To employ them properly, the country must create 85 to 90 lakh job opportunities each year. By utilizing surplus labor from agriculture in the industrial sector, the country’s economic progress can be advanced. This should be the realistic understanding of economic development for any country like India, as Nobel laureate economist Arthur Lewis attempted to show in his research on transformation from agricultural to industrial development. This is how inclusive development in the country is possible. China and Vietnam have drawn global attention by achieving socio-economic development through this very path. Yet, in our country, according to official data, the average unemployment rate, combining rural and urban areas, has reached its highest level in four decades, which is alarming. This is also a major reason for increasing income inequality. Our position in the Global Hunger Index is nearly at the bottom. The number of helpless poor people unable to get two proper meals a day is increasing. Yet, the Modi government is celebrating with jubilation, citing a World Bank report claiming that inequality and poverty have significantly decreased in the country! At this moment, regarding the daily livelihood of the people, there could be no greater irony.
It is true that India’s GDP is growing. But at the same time, income inequality and wealth distribution disparities are increasing alarmingly. In a society with unequal income and wealth distribution, social disparities also rise significantly alongside financial inequalities, directly victimizing marginalized communities. Recently, a World Bank report was sensationalized in a similar manner by government initiatives. The report stated that the current decline in inequality rates in India has significantly reduced poverty. Beyond their own mechanisms of deceiving people, this World Bank report has undoubtedly provided much oxygen to Modi and his government. However, when officially publicizing it, it was never mentioned that many economists and researchers in our country and globally have raised questions about the validity of this report. There has been extensive debate because the report does not match India’s actual social reality. Moreover, since India does not conduct systematic wealth surveys, such studies do not reflect the true picture of wealth concentration. Additionally, merely looking at income is not sufficient; there are many other factors like wealth distribution disparity, consumption disparity, disparity in access to social amenities, etc., and without proper measurement, claiming that ‘inequality has decreased in the country’ is not at all justified.
Very briefly, let’s look at India’s actual socio-economic picture. As mentioned earlier, India’s GDP does not reflect the true living standards of its people. The biggest reason is the severe disparity in income and wealth distribution. The prerequisite for leveraging the demographic dividend is inclusive development. However, opportunities for the inclusion of the majority
