Opinion | 15 Years In Power, A Month To Collapse: The Wild Unravelling Of Mamata Banerjee

In the sweltering political heat of June 2026, just a month after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) delivered a landslide victory in the West Bengal Assembly elections by securing around 208 seats to the Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) roughly 80, Mamata Banerjee’s party finds itself on the precipice of disintegration. What was unimaginable before the May results has unfolded with startling speed, as 58 Trinamool MLAs have thrown their weight behind expelled leader Ritabrata Banerjee as Leader of the Opposition, openly defying Mamata’s preference for veteran Sobhandeb Chattopadhyay.

The rebels, while professing loyalty to Mamata as a guiding figure, have effectively sidelined her nephew Abhishek Banerjee. In a desperate countermove, the official Trinamool faction dissolved all frontal organisations, leaving only Mamata as the foundational anchor. This is not mere post-defeat sulking, but structural rupture. The TMC, which rode to power in 2011 on the "Maa, Maati, Manush" slogan and held the state for 15 years, has seen its organisational muscle atrophy amid allegations of centralised, corporate-style management.

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The crisis mirrors recent splits in the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra, where the question of control over party symbols became a legal tussle. With the BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari now installed as Bengal’s Chief Minister, the power vacuum has emboldened dissenters. Mamata Banerjee, the legendary street fighter who built the TMC from scratch, faces her sternest test yet, and this time, the threat is from within. Her 41% vote share in a relatively free election underscores that her personal appeal remains intact, but institutional decay threatens to erode even that. The coming weeks will decide whether the TMC survives as a coherent force or fragments into irrelevance, a fate that would redefine not just Bengal but opposition dynamics across the entire nation.

Will Mamata Remove Abhishek?

The epicentre of discontent lies with Abhishek Banerjee, the party’s national general secretary. Old guards and newer entrants alike attribute the TMC’s rout, from 215 seats in 2021 to around 80 now, to his style of functioning, which allegedly transformed a grassroots outfit into one steered by a professional election management firm like I-PAC. Post-poll, this resentment boiled over. The rebels’ swift announcement of Ritabrata Banerjee as LoP, within minutes of official moves, signalled rejection of Abhishek’s oversight.

Removing him could theoretically quell the rebellion, but the probability remains low. Abhishek’s ascent since 2014 has been intertwined with Mamata’s decisions, who granted him control over key organisational levers. Such a move risks alienating a faction she nurtured, potentially fracturing family and loyalist networks. However, retaining him perpetuates the revolt. The dissolution of frontal wings indicates a reset attempt, but without addressing the core grievance – perceived dynastic corporate control – the murmurs will persist. Historical parallels, like regional parties losing cohesion over second-generation leadership, suggest this dilemma could prove fatal if it goes unresolved. Mamata must weigh short-term unity against long-term organisational revival.

What About The Remaining Leaders

Right now, survival is a two-front war fought in the corridors of Kolkata and the halls of New Delhi. On paper, 20 loyalists remain in the state assembly, but they look less like a vanguard and more like political hostages. With 58 rebels rallying behind a new leader, the mutineers have comfortably crossed the legal threshold to escape the anti-defection axe. The party hierarchy is crying foul, alleging forgery of signatures and demanding investigations. But everyone knows courtrooms cannot fix a broken house. Without a massive, ego-free outreach from Mamata herself, the bleeding will not stop. The warning lights are already flashing, as several of her lawmakers have already been spotted rubbing shoulders at administrative meetings hosted by the new BJP government.

If the mood in Kolkata is grim, the atmosphere in New Delhi is downright skeletal. When Mamata staged a recent protest, the optics were devastating. Out of nearly 40 parliamentarians, only a tiny circle of

West Bengal Assembly

The West Bengal Legislative Assembly, located in Kolkata, is the unicameral legislature of the Indian state of West Bengal. Its history traces back to the colonial era, with the current building, the iconic Writers’ Building, originally serving as the office for British East India Company clerks before becoming the seat of government. The Assembly has been a central stage for major political movements and debates, shaping the state’s governance since India’s independence.

Shiv Sena

Shiv Sena is a right-wing political party in India, founded in 1966 by Bal Thackeray with a focus on Marathi regionalism and nativism. Initially advocating for the rights of the native Marathi population in Maharashtra, especially in Mumbai, it later expanded its ideology to include Hindu nationalism. The party has played a significant role in state and national politics, often in alliance with other parties, and has been involved in various cultural and political movements.

Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is a political party in India, founded in 1999 by Sharad Pawar, P. A. Sangma, and Tariq Anwar after they were expelled from the Indian National Congress for challenging Sonia Gandhi’s leadership due to her foreign origin. The party has been a significant force in Maharashtra politics, often forming alliances with other parties, and has served as a key player in coalition governments at both the state and national levels. In 2023, the NCP experienced a major split, with a faction led by Ajit Pawar joining the ruling alliance, while Sharad Pawar continued to lead the original party.

Maharashtra

Maharashtra is a state in western India known for its rich cultural heritage and historical significance. It was the center of the Maratha Empire under leaders like Shivaji Maharaj, who established a powerful kingdom in the 17th century, and later came under British colonial rule. Today, it is home to Mumbai, the country’s financial and entertainment capital, and features iconic sites like the Ajanta and Ellora caves, ancient UNESCO World Heritage monuments.

Kolkata

Kolkata, formerly known as Calcutta, is the capital of the Indian state of West Bengal and served as the capital of British India until 1911. Founded in 1690 by the British East India Company, the city grew into a major colonial port and cultural hub, playing a central role in India’s independence movement. Today, it is renowned for its vibrant arts scene, historic architecture, and as the birthplace of modern Indian literary and social reform.

New Delhi

New Delhi is the capital of India, known for its blend of colonial architecture and modern urban life. The city was designed by British architects Edwin Lutyens and Herbert Baker in the early 20th century, officially becoming the capital in 1931. It stands as a symbol of India’s rich history, featuring landmarks like India Gate and the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

I-PAC

I-PAC (Indian Political Action Committee) is a political consulting and strategy group founded in 2018 by Prashant Kishor, a prominent Indian election strategist. It gained fame for its data-driven campaign management, playing a key role in major political victories, including Narendra Modi’s 2014 and 2019 campaigns and various state elections. Though not a traditional cultural site, I-PAC has significantly influenced modern Indian political culture by revolutionizing electioneering through grassroots mobilization and technology.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a major political party in India, founded in 1980 as a successor to the Bharatiya Jana Sangh. It is rooted in Hindu nationalist ideology and has grown to become the country’s dominant political force, leading the central government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi since 2014. The party advocates for cultural nationalism, economic development, and strong national security policies.