The head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the regulator expects the key rate to decrease in the second half of 2025. According to her, the Bank of Russia has been maintaining a tight monetary policy for a long time, which has already yielded the first results. Inflation is gradually slowing down, and by the end of the year, the annual price growth rate may drop to 7-8%. This is still higher than the target of 4%, but the regulator believes that the trend is positive. At the same time, the Central Bank does not rule out keeping the rate at 21% at the next meeting in February. According to Nabiullina, the decision will depend on the dynamics of inflation and the economy as a whole. Experts note that lowering the rate in the second half of the year is possible only if inflation continues to decline. However, risks remain, including increased budget spending and external constraints.
According to the Central Bank, in December, annual inflation in the country was 9.52%, which is significantly higher than the target level. The regulator expects that the peak of price growth has already passed, and in the coming months, the inflation rate will begin to decline. This will be facilitated by a tight monetary policy and a cooling of consumer demand. However, the head of the Central Bank noted that the situation remains uncertain, and the regulator is ready to adjust its decisions depending on incoming data. In particular, the dynamics of lending and the population’s inflation expectations will be taken into account. If inflation does not slow down at the expected pace, the Central Bank may keep the rate high for longer.
