On April 15, the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Sub-center of the Shanghai Social Survey Research Center released the “Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Shanghai Socioeconomic Index Series for the First Quarter of 2026.” The indices show that this quarter, the Shanghai Consumer Confidence Index stands at 93.0 points, a rebound of 2.4 points; the Investor Confidence Index is at 123.8 points, a rebound of 6.5 points, presenting a dual-rise situation.
This index series covers consumer and investor confidence indices. The Consumer Confidence Index is derived from a composite of the Evaluation Index (reflecting current economic conditions) and the Expectation Index (outlook for future economic prospects). The Investor Confidence Index is composed of four core indices. All indices use 100 points as the equilibrium point.
Compared with the previous quarter, the Consumer Confidence Index rebounded significantly this quarter. The Evaluation Index is 93.2 points, up 3.1 points; the Expectation Index is 92.6 points, remaining largely stable. Looking at various dimensions, the Income Expectation Index rose significantly by 3.4 points to 106.2 points; the Income Evaluation Index is slightly below the baseline but stable, indicating a gradual recovery in household financial conditions. Employment expectation and evaluation indices showed little change, reflecting resilience in employment confidence. The Purchase Intention Index surged sharply by 6.7 points to 88.1 points. Notably, the Timing Index for Major Household Durables jumped significantly by 7.0 points to 109.5 points, the Home Purchase Timing Index rebounded strongly by 10.5 points, and the Car Purchase Timing Index also increased notably by 2.7 points. These all indicate a significant improvement in consumer willingness to purchase high-value goods.
The indices show that in the first quarter of 2026, the Shanghai Investor Confidence Index reached 123.8 points, rising both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, placing it in the optimistic range. The Investment Environment Confidence Index rebounded noticeably, with evaluations from entrepreneurs, institutional investors, and individual investors improving simultaneously. At the macro level, policies such as stabilizing growth have continued, releasing positive signals and stabilizing market expectations. Regarding the market, measures to promote consumption have advanced, improving evaluations of the investment environment by enterprises and residents. Structurally, institutional investor confidence has seen a large recovery, with increased recognition.
It was noted that despite ongoing international turbulence and domestic economic transformation pressures, the rebound in Shanghai’s consumer market confidence still demonstrates strong resilience. The significant recovery in the Purchase Intention Index is an important signal of recovering consumer confidence and warming market expectations.
