Opposition infighting, including a split in the TMC and a rift between DMK and Congress, could benefit the NDA in Parliament.

The NDA could find itself closer than ever to the parliamentary strength it enjoyed during its peak years, before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

For nearly two years after the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP-led NDA faced one significant parliamentary limitation despite returning to power: it has lacked the numbers required for major constitutional changes without support from outside parties. That arithmetic may now be changing rapidly.

The reported rebellion by 20 Trinamool Congress MPs, the formal collapse of the Congress-DMK alliance, and the earlier shift of seven AAP Rajya Sabha MPs towards the NDA have together created a political situation that would have seemed improbable just months ago.

The question now is whether the ruling alliance is gradually moving towards the kind of dominant parliamentary position that allows governments to pursue much larger structural changes.

The Impact Of TMC Split

At least 20 of the TMC’s 28 Lok Sabha MPs have reportedly written to the Speaker indicating their desire to support the NDA. The rebel group claims it has crossed the crucial two-thirds threshold required under the anti-defection law to seek recognition as a separate bloc.

Under the Tenth Schedule, a split backed by at least two-thirds of a legislature party can avoid immediate disqualification proceedings. For TMC’s 28-member Lok Sabha contingent, the magic figure is 19. The rebels claim support from 20 MPs, putting them above that threshold. If the Speaker ultimately recognizes such a breakaway formation, the impact extends far beyond Bengal politics.

TMC has been one of the largest opposition parties in Parliament and one of the most vocal anti-BJP forces. A bloc of 20 MPs moving into the NDA camp or even providing stable outside support would represent one of the largest parliamentary shifts of the Modi era.

The Parliament Maths

The Lok Sabha currently has 543 elected members. For ordinary legislation, a simple majority is enough. For a Constitutional Amendment Bill under Article 368, however, the government needs support from at least two-thirds of members present and voting, along with a majority of the total membership of the House.

In practical political calculations, parties often use the benchmark of roughly 362 MPs – two-thirds of the full House strength – as the indicator of whether a government can comfortably push constitutional changes without depending on unpredictable outside support.

Step One: The TMC Revolt

The biggest immediate factor is the rebellion within the Trinamool Congress.

Reports indicate that around 20 of TMC’s 28 Lok Sabha MPs have written to the Speaker expressing their willingness to support the NDA.

If those 20 MPs formally shift their support to the government, the NDA’s tally rises from 293 to 313.

The alliance would still remain 47 seats short of the two-thirds mark, but the distance would have narrowed substantially.

This is why the developments in West Bengal are being watched so closely in New Delhi.

The implications extend far beyond state politics.

Step Two: What Happens If The DMK Extends Issue-Based Support?

The second major variable is the DMK.

The DMK’s break with Congress has dramatically altered the opposition landscape.

The party has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha. There is currently no indication that the DMK is considering joining the NDA. However, parliamentary politics often works through issue-based alignments rather than formal alliances.

If the DMK decides to support the government on select legislation, particularly constitutional or institutional reforms, another 22 votes could effectively become available.

That would take the tally to: