As World Focuses On AI, China Holds The Key In Critical Minerals Race

The world’s focus is on AI – large language models promising increased individual and business productivity and the US using Claude-based systems for enhanced battlefield analysis in Iran.

The focus is also on clean energy, on the use of electric transportation platforms to reduce dependence on fossil fuels that pollute air and water reserves that are in increasingly short supply.

But behind the futuristic curtain there is a race unfolding – a scramble between the West and China to control critical minerals and their supply chains, i.e., the mines from which they are extracted to refineries that process them and shipping channels that distribute them globally.

Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, and the specific subcategory of rare earth minerals, are part of a base enabling growth of Artificial Intelligence and the bedrock of related industries like microelectronics, batteries, and semiconductors that power these systems.

The list of critical minerals evolves over time. But what makes them ‘critical’ is the fact that emergent technology – like AI – is grounded in component hardware made with these resources.

Control over these minerals, therefore, offers any country a strategic edge not just for economic growth and the race to build next-gen technology but also in the development of weapons or, as in the case of the US in Iran, refining existing military protocols to inflict greater damage in a war.

The takeaway is simple.

The next big global tech race won’t be won in labs or boardrooms. The winner won’t be the newest invention or the most ruthless corporate shark. It will be the country (or company) that best controls mines, refineries, and ports. And right now, China is winning that race.

The critical minerals race

Last week a report by the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that ‘ownership of strategically significant mineral deposits is changing hands’ and that Chinese firms are ‘acquiring an ever-larger share of assets that will supply future rare earths demand’.

In 2024 these acquisitions hit their highest level in a decade. At least 10 deals were valued at over $100 million. And in 2025 state private firms spent even more, buying up mines, mining operations, and refineries in South America and Africa to reinforce its already dominant hold.

The numbers are startling. In December 2025 the Africa Center for Strategic Studies noted Beijing ‘now controls over half of global critical minerals production’, including 70 per cent of rare earth minerals, or REEs, and an estimated 87 per cent of all processing and refining.

And acquisitions over 2023-26 have crossed $6.5 billion, including the $2 billion purchase of a Argentinian lithium mine and the $1.73 billion purchase of a copper mine in Botswana.

Beijing’s readiness to move first and willingness to spend big has bought it the gatekeeper’s post on critical and rare earth minerals at a time of increasing emphasis on these resources. This means it can curb or suppress exports to rival nations or even undercut other suppliers.

The US was on the receiving end of just such a lesson in 2024; in an acerbic tit-for-tat trade tariffs exchange, China withheld REEs that American manufacturers desperately needed.

Beijing’s flex then was a lesson in weaponising strategic chokeholds, a lesson Washington has since been taught anew by Tehran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz to weaponise oil flows.

Now, this doesn’t mean the US and other western nations are unaware of critical minerals or their importance. On the contrary, Reuters said that in February US Vice President JD Vance unveiled plans to marshal allied nations into a preferential trading bloc to help Washington loosen Beijing’s grip on these materials. “We want to eliminate that problem of people flooding into our markets with cheap critical minerals to undercut our domestic manufacturers,” he said.

Reuters also reported the US has also launched an initiative to stockpile critical minerals; the Trump administration codenamed this Project Vault and set aside $10 billion in seed funding.

India and Japan were among 55 countries present at Vance’s February meeting.

For India the stakes are high, perhaps higher than most other countries.

The war in Iran and the subsequent squeezing of oil and gas imports has forced the Indian government into hiking prices by substantial margins to offset losses – increased crude oil prices, shipping

Iran

Iran, historically known as Persia, is a country in Western Asia with a rich cultural heritage dating back thousands of years. It was the center of the ancient Persian Empire, renowned for its advancements in art, science, and governance under rulers like Cyrus the Great. Today, Iran is known for its stunning Islamic architecture, poetic traditions, and diverse cultural sites, including the ruins of Persepolis and the historic city of Isfahan.

South America

South America is a continent of immense cultural and natural diversity, shaped by ancient civilizations like the Inca, as well as European colonization starting in the 16th century. Its history includes the rise and fall of vast empires, the transatlantic slave trade, and waves of immigration, all contributing to a rich blend of Indigenous, African, and European traditions. Today, South America is known for landmarks such as the Amazon Rainforest, Machu Picchu, and vibrant cities like Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires.

Africa

Africa is the world’s second-largest continent, renowned for its vast cultural and natural diversity. It is widely considered the cradle of humankind, with the earliest evidence of human ancestors found in regions like the Great Rift Valley. The continent’s history includes ancient civilizations such as Egypt and Carthage, followed by periods of colonization and the eventual rise of independent nations.

Argentina

Argentina is a South American country known for its rich cultural heritage, blending Indigenous, European (especially Spanish and Italian), and immigrant influences. Its history includes Spanish colonization beginning in the 16th century, independence in 1816, and periods of political turmoil, including the Perón era and the military dictatorship from 1976 to 1983. Today, Argentina is famous for tango music and dance, football, and landmarks like Buenos Aires, the Andes mountains, and Iguazú Falls.

Botswana

Botswana is a landlocked country in Southern Africa known for its rich wildlife and stunning natural landscapes, including the Okavango Delta and the Kalahari Desert. Formerly the British protectorate of Bechuanaland, it gained independence in 1966 and has since become one of Africa’s most stable and prosperous democracies. Its history is deeply tied to the Tswana people, who have inhabited the region for centuries and shaped its cultural heritage.

Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, strategically vital as a passage for about 20% of the world’s oil shipments. Its history as a key trade route dates back to ancient civilizations, and it has been controlled by various empires, including the Portuguese in the 16th century and later the British. Today, it remains a focal point of geopolitical tension, particularly between Iran and other global powers.

India

India is a vast and diverse country in South Asia with a history spanning over 5,000 years, home to ancient civilizations like the Indus Valley and major religions such as Hinduism, Buddhism, and Jainism. It was ruled by powerful empires, including the Maurya and Mughal dynasties, before becoming a British colony, and gained independence in 1947 under the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi. Today, India is known for its rich cultural heritage, iconic landmarks like the Taj Mahal, and a blend of traditions, languages, and festivals.

Japan

Japan is an island nation in East Asia known for its rich cultural heritage, blending ancient traditions with modern innovation. Its history spans thousands of years, from the imperial courts and samurai era to rapid modernization during the Meiji Restoration. Today, Japan is famous for its temples, shrines, tea ceremonies, and global contributions to technology and pop culture.