After years of adjustments, the real estate market reached a key turning point in March this year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, both new and second-hand home sales prices in first-tier cities rose month-on-month across the board. Guangzhou, after nearly three years, saw both new and second-hand home prices increase month-on-month.

Looking at second-hand home transaction volumes in the first quarter, Shanghai saw a slight year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while Beijing remained largely flat year-on-year. In the view of a strategist based in Singapore, China’s long-depressed real estate market has likely reached a turning point.

Second-hand home transaction volumes in first-tier cities are gradually recovering

As the Hong Kong property market experiences frequent hot sales, second-hand home transaction volumes in mainland first-tier cities are also gradually recovering.

According to data from real estate agencies, in March, second-hand home transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all hit new highs. In Guangzhou, the number of second-hand home online contracts and area reached 10,785 units and 1.0533 million square meters, up 141.38% and 129.52% month-on-month, respectively. Shenzhen recorded 5,071 second-hand home transactions, up 116.8% month-on-month. Beijing saw 19,886 second-hand home online contracts, the highest peak in 15 months. Shanghai recorded a cumulative 31,300 online contracts, the highest record in nearly five years since March 2021.

In the first quarter, driven by favorable new policies, second-hand home transaction volumes in Shanghai and Beijing showed slight year-on-year increases. Shanghai’s total second-hand home transactions in the first quarter were 58,000 units, up 1.5% year-on-year; Beijing’s were 43,000 units, essentially flat year-on-year.

Guangzhou and Shenzhen, without new policy boosts, also saw stable second-hand transaction volumes. In the first quarter, Guangzhou recorded 24,209 second-hand home online contracts covering 2.4242 million square meters; Shenzhen recorded 12,691 second-hand home transactions.

Analysts point out that this year, the Shenzhen real estate market has indeed warmed up compared to the second half of last year, mainly reflected in more active second-hand home transactions, increased customer confidence, and higher willingness to enter the market. However, due to a lack of positive news stimuli, the overall growth is limited.

Guangzhou’s new home inventory area declines

Compared to the second-hand market, the transaction area of new homes in first-tier cities continues to decline.

According to data, in the first quarter of this year, the total transaction area of new homes in first-tier cities was 3.454 million square meters, with month-on-month and year-on-year declines, indicating significant pressure on overall transactions. Among the four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, Guangzhou had the most optimistic year-on-year transaction area.

In terms of average transaction prices, in the first quarter, Shenzhen’s new home average transaction price stabilized month-on-month and rose 14% year-on-year; Beijing saw a slight month-on-month decline and a 1% year-on-year increase; Shanghai and Guangzhou both saw slight month-on-month and year-on-year declines.

Regarding new home inventory clearance, among first-tier cities, only Guangzhou saw a 4% year-on-year decrease in inventory area, indicating better clearance; Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw year-on-year increases ranging from 4% to 12%. The inventory digestion cycles of the four major cities ranged from 19.4 months to 35.1 months.

Price declines in first-tier city property markets have significantly narrowed

Analysis indicates that based on the transaction prices of new and second-hand homes in first-tier cities in the first quarter, the decline has significantly narrowed, with signs of stabilization and recovery gradually emerging. Among them, the activity of second-hand home transactions in cities like Shanghai and Beijing has particularly improved.

It is noted that with sufficient adjustments in the market and prices, the cost-effectiveness of buying second-hand homes is currently very high, and the timing to enter the market is very clear, with the replacement chain gradually being unblocked. It is

Hong Kong

Hong Kong is a vibrant Special Administrative Region of China, known for its iconic skyline and deep natural harbor. Originally a small fishing village, it became a British colony in 1842 after the First Opium War, and later grew into a major global financial hub. In 1997, it was returned to China under the “one country, two systems” principle, which allows it to maintain a distinct legal and economic system.

Beijing

Beijing, the capital of China, is a city with a history spanning over 3,000 years, serving as the imperial seat for the Ming and Qing dynasties. It is home to iconic cultural sites such as the Forbidden City, the Great Wall, and the Temple of Heaven, which reflect its rich imperial past. Today, Beijing is a vibrant global metropolis that blends ancient traditions with modern innovation as the nation’s political, cultural, and educational center.

Shanghai

Shanghai is a major global financial hub and one of China’s most populous cities, located on the eastern coast at the mouth of the Yangtze River. Its history as a prominent trading port began in the 19th century following the Treaty of Nanjing, leading to a period of foreign concessions that shaped its unique blend of Eastern and Western architecture and culture. Today, it is known for its modern skyline, historic Bund waterfront, and vibrant cultural scene.

Guangzhou

Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong Province in southern China, is a major port city with a history spanning over 2,200 years. It was a key starting point of the ancient Maritime Silk Road and has long been a center for trade and cultural exchange. Today, it is known for its modern skyline, Cantonese cuisine, and landmarks like the Canton Tower and Chen Clan Ancestral Hall.

Shenzhen

Shenzhen is a major city in southern China, known for its rapid transformation from a small fishing village into a global technology and innovation hub. Its modern history began in 1980 when it was designated as China’s first Special Economic Zone, which spurred explosive economic growth and urbanization. Today, it is famous for its futuristic skyline, thriving tech industry, and as a gateway to Hong Kong.

Singapore

Singapore is a vibrant city-state in Southeast Asia, known for its multicultural society and modern skyline. Originally a small fishing village, it was founded as a British trading post by Sir Stamford Raffles in 1819 and later became a key port in the British Empire. After gaining independence in 1965, Singapore rapidly developed into a global financial hub, blending diverse cultural influences with world-class infrastructure.