The decline in births in Japan shows no signs of stopping. The government needs to take this reality seriously.
In 2025, the total fertility rate — the number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime — fell for the 10th straight year to a record low of 1.14. The number of births also sank to a record low of 671,236. Although the rate of decline was smaller than in recent years, the birth rate is falling at a pace 15 years ahead of government projections.
Since the administration of a former prime minister, which introduced what it called “unprecedented measures to reverse the declining birth rate,” there has been some progress in support for households raising children, including expanded child allowances.
But the lack of visible results in spite of this suggests that the policies are not meeting the needs of younger generations.
What has emerged from private surveys is that many people are unable to have as many children as they wish, or choose not to marry due to the economic burden.
First, it is important to ensure people can look forward to stable lives.
Companies have been raising wages, but they have not kept up with the rise in prices. Data also shows that men in nonregular employment with unstable incomes have high rates of remaining unmarried. The government should do more to correct the disparity between nonregular and regular employment and further encourage the shift to regular employment.
Japan’s public spending on higher education is low among member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Many young people who have to repay loan-type scholarships struggle to make ends meet even after finding jobs. This is one reason they hesitate to get married and have children, and easing that burden is essential.
In urban areas, meanwhile, soaring housing prices stand out. In addition to supplying affordable homes for sale or rent, expanded mortgage relief for families with children is also needed.
Another challenge is improving the situation in which the burden of child-rearing falls disproportionately on women. Many people still believe understanding in the workplace remains inadequate when it comes to promoting men’s participation in child care. Companies have a responsibility to thoroughly carry out work-style reforms.
Of concern is the fact that the current administration has shown no signs of tackling such issues head-on.
Japan’s “children’s future strategy” has put forward a policy of doubling the budget for children and child-rearing by the early 2030s. The “acceleration plan” for countering the declining birth rate is in its final fiscal year. The government must review past measures and ensure that policies from next fiscal year onward are truly effective.
